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Research Market strategy
by Swissquote Analysts
每日市场简报

喜忧参半的消息外流使投资者保持谨慎

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喜忧参半的消息外流使投资者保持谨慎

By Vincent Mivelaz

继周一看到全球市场出现令人印象深刻的看涨反弹之后,缺乏积极催化剂似乎最终成了定局。法德两国提议设置价值5000亿欧元的欧洲复苏基金因其实施时间(最早将在2021年之后实施)而受到质疑,而“授予”条件(不是适当的贷款)应该会令欧盟成员国支持即将于5月27日召开欧盟委员会会议承压。然而,由于欧盟面临自第二次世界大战以来的最严重经济收缩,欧洲出现团结的迹象可能会释放积极信号,同时提振情绪以及单一货币。据某份报告称,并无足够数据证实莫德纳的疫苗有效(尽管这仍然不那么令人惊讶,因为这家位于剑桥的生物技术公司刚刚进入了第二阶段试验),这使得人们对该公司很快就会推出疫苗的预期减弱了。目前,投资者正关注美联储即将发布的会议纪要,并试图猜测英国央行在2020年6月18日的政策会议之后是否会采用负利率。

事实上,自本周以一系列消极数据开始以来,有关英国央行或将采取进一步刺激措施的揣测正在不断上升。市场对英国劳工数据的关注并不多,3月失业率维持在3.9%,4月失业救济申请人数应该会环比增加85.65万(前值:1.22万),创历史新高。此外,最新发布的消费者通胀数据证实该数据已录得有史以来最差水平,环比下滑0.20%(前值:0%),同比增长0.8%(前值:1.5%)。由于通胀率已下滑至1%以下,市场预测英国2020年第二季度的GDP将季比下滑14.6%(前值:下滑2%)。积极消息方面,根据英国商会的一项调查显示,有三分之一的英国公司确认他们可以复工,但鉴于欧盟目前提出的“低质量”贸易协议,硬脱欧的风险将与英国脱欧后的新关税制度相抵消。根据该新关税制度,英国将对其全球贸易伙伴的消费品的关税降至2%以下。未来几天市场的反应将受到日本、欧洲和美国明日释放的PMI的推动,同时市场参与者还将仔细监视日本央行周五的紧急会议。该会议应该会确认金融机构的融资量以及4月零售销售数据(预期:-15.5%)。英镑兑美元目前为1.2243。从负利率前景和英国脱欧相关影响来看,该货币对的短期走势是横盘整理,长期走势是下跌。

 
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