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暂停宽松周期对印度卢比不利

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暂停宽松周期对印度卢比不利

By Vincent Mivelaz

在当前中美贸易谈判结果不确定的情况下,地缘政治紧张局势加剧,新兴市场货币仍承受着持续的压力。中国达成第一阶段协议的前提是,美国降低关税并愿意将知识产权和技术转让等主题纳入协议中,目前这仍然是双方不能达成协议的主要症结所在。在莫迪政府于本财年前七个月中已经超过了最初的预算赤字之后,印度的财政政策显然已达到极限,印度央行决定加息以缓解价格通胀的意外,特别是考虑到经济增长存在持续下行风险时。尽管印度卢比当前有所反弹,但我们预计将来会有所下降,理由是美国将于2019年12月15日对价值1560亿美元的中国进口商品征收关税,并且中国针对美国公司的“不可靠实体名单”仍在酝酿中。

印度政府似乎已经超过其财政赤字目标,预计为102.40%或7.2万亿印度卢比(约合1000亿美元),使得印度的财政刺激措施看似效果有限。另外,虽然印度央行本年度已经第五次降息了,将其回购利率下调至目前的5.15%(年初至今已累计下调1.10%),但其影响也是相当有限。第三季度的同比经济增长率为4.50%(前值:5%),是自2013年3月以来的最低增速,而印度央行预测截至2020年3月底的年度增长率为5%(前值:6.10%)。印度央行声称 “未来还有进一步采取货币政策行动的空间”,这对印度卢比来说是一个非常消极的观点。此外,随着美国与其他贸易伙伴的谈判日趋激烈,以及11月初华盛顿与新德里之间的首次会谈以完全没有提及美国乳制品的意外方式结束,上述消息对印度卢比来说依然很重要。

 
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