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Research Market strategy
by Swissquote Analysts
每日市场简报

厄运和忧郁在蔓延,但市场表现稳定

1

厄运和忧郁在蔓延,但市场表现稳定

By Peter Rosenstreich


考虑到正在不断发展的风险,市场应对新闻流的情况相对不错。亚洲股市涨跌互见,欧洲股市走高。英国与欧盟之间的谈判已陷入僵局(在10月31日之前达成协议似乎已不太可能)。关于美中贸易谈判,华盛顿方面已经释放出消极信号,其不久之前对中国官员实施签证限制。由于计划在今天举行美中高层贸易谈判,因此市场期望值较低。中国官员表示,只要不加征更多关税,北京方面就会接受有限的贸易协议,这使市场存有一线希望。最后,有消息说土耳其在叙利亚北部发动攻势,击中了美国支持的叙利亚民兵。鉴于英国脱欧不确定性在短期内不太可能减少,我们仍然看空英镑兑日元。英镑兑美元的看跌趋势需要清除1.2197,以延续下行趋势,回到1.1959的低点。

随着风险需求的增加,美国国债收益率继续上涨。美国国债收益率曲线的末端触及10月高点2.09%。土耳其军队在叙利亚发动进攻后,原油价格出现短暂上涨,但是由于美国数据显示原油库存连续第四周上涨,原油价格又出现下跌。昨天的联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要表明,大多数联邦公开市场委员会成员更关注经济增长的下行风险,而不是通胀的上行风险。会议纪要凸显了委员会内部存在明显的分歧。贸易紧张局势和全球增长疲软是主要担忧。有趣的是,委员会成员似乎并不关心关税可能对通货膨胀造成的影响。总体而言,活动数据的进一步疲软将触发今年再降息两次,时间可能是10月和12月,幅度可能是25个基点。也就是说,只要通货膨胀率保持在低位,就有可能降息。今天,市场将关注英国工业生产和建筑数据以及美国CPI。欧元兑美元仍然窄幅震荡,介于1.0940支撑位和1.1000阻力位之间。

 
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