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Research Market strategy
by Swissquote Analysts
每日市场简报

市场因贸易谈判而犹豫不决,政策会议纪要临近

1

市场因贸易谈判而犹豫不决,政策会议纪要临近

By Vincent Mivelaz

最近的事态发展使市场参与者陷入困境。对于中美贸易战、当前地缘政治头条新闻以及即将在经济活动减弱背景下公布的美联储会议纪要三者到底是谁应该占上风,市场显得有些犹豫不决。在这种情况下,市场对金条的需求仍然紧张,其仍位于1500区间上方。如果即将于明天开始的贸易谈判能取得有限的突破,则金价将反弹。与此同时,如果美联储的宽松政策低于市场对10月降息的预期,则即将发布的《联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要》可能会使美元反弹。

由于市场越来越猜测美联储会进一步降息(之前分别在7月和9月降息了25个基点),自上周初制造业和非制造业活动供应管理协会分别发布令人失望的商业活动指数以来,美国经济增长放缓的担忧一直困扰着美元。尽管降息的隐含概率已从上周的72.90%上升至82.20%,但联储会议纪要似乎很容易欺骗投资者,因为有迹象显示决策者之间存在重大分歧(请注意,17个决策者中只有7个考虑在9月会议上进行第三次加息),这可能迫使分析师削减对2019年10月30日会议的预测。相反,美联储成员应宣布在接下来的时期恢复购买债券。在贸易方面,在美国国务院最近宣布限制签证仅限于某些中国官员,同时禁止中国AI公司未经美国政府事先批准而从美国公司购买产品之后,预计部长级谈判将会紧张。除了预计在2019年10月15日对价值2500亿美元的中国进口商品的关税税率从25%提高到30%之外,还有传言称美国可能会限制资本流入中国,最初是针对美国政府养老基金的,这很可能导致新兴市场资产中断。

在当前情况下,鉴于即将出炉的美联储会议纪要可能会提振美元,从而使目前交易于1.0978的欧元兑美元沿着1.0880区间波动,我们支持做空欧元兑美元的偏见。

 
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