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Research Market strategy
by Swissquote Analysts
每日市场简报

地缘政治背景下里拉交易量上升

1

地缘政治开始发挥作用,土耳其里拉的波动性不断上升

By Vincent Mivelaz


土耳其里拉在二十国集团峰会结束后经历了四个月的平静期,但由于土耳其目前正因地缘政治因素而备受关注,里拉的平静期很可能就此被打破。土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安最近宣布要入侵叙利亚东北部,声称将针对目前由库尔德军队占领的地区,这最终将触发土耳其里拉和股票下跌。此外,美国实施的关税和制裁也将使该国陷入困境。结合土耳其当局为与降息步伐保持一致而对土耳其央行施加的压力,由于信贷风险增加和贷款市场利润率下降,银行业仍然高度脆弱。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁说,如果土耳其在事先批准可能入侵该地区后采取未定措施,则其将“彻底摧毁并消灭土耳其经济”,这可能会引发土耳其资产的进一步不确定性,届时就跟美国牧师安德鲁·布伦森事件时的情况一样。土耳其债券在通胀环境放缓的情况下仍继续表现出色,但这种趋势似乎有可能在通胀加剧和土耳其里拉进一步走弱的迹象中发生转变。伊斯坦布尔证券交易所100指数(年初至今上涨10.60%)已经面临着最新的头条新闻,自10月初以来已经下跌了3.30%。尽管发生了去年的事件,但预计土耳其央行仍将保持稳定,并可能在年底前将其目前为16.50%的给定1周回购利率下调2%(年初至今已累计下调7.50%)。虽然总体通胀率和核心通胀率分别大幅下降至个位数,分别降至9.30%(前值:15%)和7.50%(前值:13.60%),生产者价格指数已降至2.50%(前值:13.50%),原因是各项数据自去年以来一直维持高位,经济状况稳定且叙利亚的战术行动将破坏最近的改进。由于预期可能会受到制裁,金融市场已经低估了土耳其资产,这有利于土耳其资产的美元化。


在这种情况下,美元兑里拉的势头应该保持高位。美元兑里拉目前交投于5.83,未来有望突破阻力位5.8324(2018年8月30日和2019年10月7日的高点),接近5.8620。

 
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