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Research Market strategy
by Swissquote Analysts
每日市场简报

英国经济增速放缓

1

英国经济增速放缓

By Vincent Mivelaz

距离英国与欧盟正式“离婚”只剩50天,但目前的情形与2个月之前相比似乎并无根本变化。当时有关初始脱欧协议的争议迫使英国首相特里萨·梅将投票推迟至2019年1月。爱尔兰的“保障协议”依然是下议院的绊脚石。

我认为英国央行不会改变其货币立场,理由是英国央行在12月采取了“等待观望的”态度。如果英国选择硬脱欧,则英国央行很可能不会提高其关键利率,而是在经济需要的情况下进行降息,且不论通胀情况如何。如果英镑出现大幅贬值,则英国央行可能会采取相反措施以遏制崩盘。如果达成建设性协议,则英国央行可能会上调其关键利率,以在工资强劲增长和失业率较低的情况下将通胀维持在2%的目标范围内。我们看跌英镑,因为在全球经济增速放缓的情况下,预计增速预测(11月对GDP的预测为:2018年第四季度为0.30%,未来3年为1.70%)会下调。

因此,我们预计英镑在今天会继续下跌并收于负值区域(周至今为-1.37%),英国央行预计将下调其经济增速预测,而首相梅将与欧盟委员会主席容克以及欧盟总统图斯克今天在布鲁塞尔进行会面的事件对此并无帮助。英镑兑美元目前的交易价格为1.2907,短期内接近1.2890。

 
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